Most economists see 'sequestration' budget cuts as unavoidable

WASHINGTON -- With just a few days to go before new government spending cuts are set to take effect, what are the chances that another eleventh-hour action will avert the latest impending hit to the economy?

Very little, according to a survey of economists released Monday by the National Assn. for Business Economics. The group said that nearly 60% of economists now expect the so-called sequestration, which will slice about $85 billion from the federal budget, to begin March 1 in full or partial form.

The survey of 49 professional economists, representing industry, government and universities, indicates that experts don't see a recession scenario as a result of the new spending cuts, as they did the "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and fiscal reductions, which were mostly avoided at the last minute at the start of this year.

More than half of these economists predicted that the effects of sequestration and other budget uncertainties would shave economic growth by less than half a percentage point this year. Another one-third said the pain would be greater, with real gross domestic product, or total economic output, sliced by up to a full percentage point.

Either way, that's no small number given the mediocre pace of GDP growth since the Great Recession of a little more than 2% on average. And many economists, policymakers and business people across the country have expressed fears that the indiscriminate nature of the cuts under sequestration will impose unnecessary hardships on certain programs such as Head Start for preschool children.

Total government spending and investments are now seen as falling by 1% this year from 2012, according to the median, or mid-point, of the responses from the economists surveyed. That is worse than the 0.6% drag forecast in the association's survey in December.
 
Real GDP is expected to expand by 2% this year, down a bit from the 2.2% GDP growth in 2012. The nation is projected to add 170,000 jobs a month on average, down from 181,000 last year, according to the median value of responses. That should bring down the unemployment rate gradually, to 7.5% in the fourth quarter of 2013 from 7.9% at the start of this year.

Economists, however, see economic growth accelerating next year as the nation absorbs the fiscal spending cuts and benefits from the housing market recovery and a pickup in business investments. Real GDP is seen as growing by almost 3% in 2014, the survey said, and the unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 7% by the end of next year.

ALSO:  

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Oscars stage manager braces for his final cues to the stars

He delivered a forgotten harmonica to Stevie Wonder onstage at the Grammy Awards, supplied a shoulder to lean on for a post-hip-surgery Gregory Peck at the Oscars and served as a human Xanax for hundreds of other stars in the most terrifying and exhilarating moments of their careers.

Stage manager Dency Nelson, 61, works behind the scenes at the Oscars, plus at times the Grammys, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Teen Choice Awards, MTV Movie Awards and other shows. This year will mark his 25th — and last, he said — Academy Awards, as he plans to retire from one of show business' least known but most stressful gigs.

An anonymous but critical piece of the Hollywood awards season machinery, stage managers like Nelson control the chaos of the live TV broadcast — they deliver the correct winning envelopes, ensure that the pop-up microphone actually pops up and, most delicately, orchestrate the flow of talent through the stage wings.

Oscars 2013: Nominee list | Ballot | Trivia | Timeline

An avuncular former hippie with twinkling green eyes, a silver earring and a scruffy, salt-and-pepper beard, Nelson is stationed in the stage-right wings, a hot spot where most of the Oscar telecast's jittery presenters enter and elated winners exit.

"It's like air traffic control," he said one recent afternoon at the Dolby Theatre at the Hollywood & Highland Center, where he was preparing for Sunday's show. "Ninety percent of the people in the room don't know my name, but when they round the corner and come into the wings there's a smile, 'Oh, that guy.'"

Even seasoned performers rely on stage managers for assurance in the unforgiving medium of live TV, and backstage figures like Nelson develop a rapport with stars they see at multiple shows.

Last year, before Meryl Streep stepped onto the Oscar stage to present an award, she reviewed her script, smoothed her gown and cast a tentative glance at Nelson. "You'll push me out when it's time?" she asked. He gently led the actress by the arm to the edge of the curtain, sending her off to face an audience of 40 million.

An hour later, after winning lead actress for "The Iron Lady," the first person an emotional Streep saw was Nelson, with a chair and a welcome water bottle.

"Dency's businesslike, but he makes people comfortable," said American Film Institute founder George Stevens Jr., who met him when the recent college grad was lugging heavy film reels for the L.A.-based nonprofit. Charmed by the young man's work ethic, nearly four decades later Stevens still hires him to stage-manage the "Kennedy Center Honors" and "Christmas in Washington" shows every year.

Many of the approximately 500-person backstage crew at the Oscars have been performers themselves, including head stage manager Gary Natoli (Nelson's boss) and a stage manager who specializes in talent, Valdez Flagg, both former actors and dancers.

TIMELINE: Academy Award winners

According to guild minimums, the stage managers must make at least $746 for a 12-hour day, and many work other steady jobs. Thanks to the proliferation of performance-based reality shows such as "American Idol" and "The Voice," there's a lot of work available for the specialized group who know how to do it.

Nelson has stage-managed the game show "Let's Make a Deal" and the syndicated variety program "The Wayne Brady Show."

"Anyone can do this job as long as nothing goes wrong," said Flagg. "If you can't go with the flow, you won't last. You'll freak out."

The year Wonder forgot his harmonica, for instance, the Grammys crew had to think quickly — how do you subtly signal a blind man? Ultimately, Nelson asked the director to frame a tight shot on the singer's face while he sneaked up from below and tugged on Wonder's pant-leg. At the Emmys, when an impostor tried to walk off with "Hill Street Blues" star Betty Thomas' trophy, Nelson skidded on stage with another.

And then there's that other occupational hazard: jerks. "People are just nervous in some cases and take it out on you," Nelson said with a shrug.

This year's Oscar telecast is a particularly taxing one for the stage crew, with many singing and dancing casts to maneuver. The consequences of a missed cue can be dire — at several points in the show, 34.5-foot lifts built into the stage floor will open to move scenery pieces.

Nelson, who grew up in Menlo Park the son of an Army auditor, originally wanted to be an actor. As a child he hosted the Andy Williams Christmas show by himself in front of the Christmas tree, with a toilet paper roll as a microphone.

After graduating from UC Santa Cruz with a degree in theater, he took a job as a driver and mail clerk for AFI and worked behind the scenes as "the guy who guarded the doughnuts" for the 1970s soap opera parody "Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman" and a cue card man for "Saturday Night Live" and David Letterman.

Play-at-home ballot: Have you made your picks yet?

Along the way he continued to act in commercials, basement theaters and tiny walk-on roles (in Woody Allen's "Manhattan," you can see Nelson stride across Park Avenue carrying an attaché case). "I wasn't really getting anywhere," he said. "I just saw my actor colleagues, their talent, and saw I'm not that."

The frustrated performance experience, however, gives Nelson a nuanced understanding of what the people he's pushing into the lights on Oscar night are feeling. "There have been plenty of times where I have held a trembling hand and smiled," he said. "I so admire anyone who can do that."

The stage crew prepares with the thoroughness of a military campaign. During rehearsals, Nelson marks his show rundown with different colors of highlighters and pens, noting when he'll send a performer upstage or where a piece of scenery will move. Unlike some younger stage managers, he still uses paper, not an electronic device, for storing his "road map."

In a change this year, six college film students will deliver the trophies onstage, instead of the usual cadre of models who float from show to show. On Wednesday, Nelson was coaching them on the subtle art of statuette distribution.

"Let the kiss and hug happen," he said, his hands stained with red ink from jotting notes on his script, six roles of tape swinging from his belt. "Just linger upstage, let that traffic happen."

At Nelson's first Oscars, before the students were born, Jack Lemmon was the host. Over the years, Nelson said he's noticed an evolution in the awards show scene, as older performers who approached show business with a certain gentility have given way to a more casual and sometimes cruder generation.

"I'm no prude, but there was a certain formality and respect to things," he said. "I'm sorry to see it go, although I understand the financial necessity 'cause it's about the ratings."

A married father of one grown daughter, Nelson lives in Hermosa Beach and is active in Democratic party politics and environmental causes; he helped found a nonprofit devoted to alternative vehicles called Plug in America (he owns two electric cars). Especially engaged in the union to which stage managers belong, the Directors Guild of America, this year he received the guild's Franklin J. Schaffner Award for service.

He said he's retiring to devote more time to his political passions, but he also appears ready to shed the pressures of awards season.

"I don't want to make any mistakes," Nelson said. "The worst is just before the show starts. That's awful. That last hour in the wings.... It's not calm inside. As I am nearing my retirement, I just keep thinking of Jack Nicholson's line in 'Terms of Endearment' ... 'Inches from a clean getaway.'"

Play-at-home ballot: Have you made your picks yet?

rebecca.keegan@latimes.com

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Dozens of stars spend Saturday at Oscar rehearsals

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Some dressed down in jeans and hoodies. Others looked camera-ready in suits or chic dresses and spiky stilettos.

But all of the stars who rehearsed Saturday for the 85th Academy Awards seemed excited about being a part of the big show.

They paraded through the Dolby Theatre in 15-minute increments: Meryl Streep. Ben Affleck. Reese Witherspoon. Richard Gere. Jennifer Aniston. John Travolta. Nicole Kidman. Jack Nicholson. And dozens more.

Each practiced their lines in front of an audience of show workers and awarded prop Oscars to rehearsal actors. They also scanned the theater from the stage, searching for their show-night seats.

"Oh, wow. That's a very dramatic picture of me," best-actress nominee Jessica Chastain said after spotting her seat-saving placard. "I'm looking at everyone's headshots. It's kind of incredible."

Affleck confessed his excitement from the stage as he looked out at all the famous faces expected Sunday.

"This is like the most memorable aspect of the Oscars," the "Argo" director said. "You see all these place cards (at rehearsal), then you come back and they're all here!"

Affleck also chatted backstage with the college students who won a contest to serve as trophy carriers during the ceremony.

"I love that," he said. "It's super cool."

Travolta also took time with the students.

"I was there when that idea was born and I said it was the best idea they could possibly come up with," he told the aspiring filmmakers backstage. "And here you are!"

Travolta plans to bring his 13-year-old daughter, Ella Bleu, to the ceremony.

Kidman made rehearsals a family affair. Husband Keith Urban and their eldest daughter, Sunday, watched from the audience as Kidman ran through her lines.

She looked impeccable in a wine-colored dress and tall, metallic shoes, but other stars were decidedly more casual. Kristen Stewart arrived in jeans, sneakers and a backward ballcap. (She also limped on an injured right foot.) Renee Zellweger also opted for comfort in jeans and running shoes.

The cast of "Chicago," including Gere, Zellweger, Queen Latifah and Catherine Zeta-Jones, injected their rehearsal with silliness. Latifah purposely over-enunciated her lines, and when a pair of rehearsal actors claimed an Oscar onstage and gave an acceptance speech, Zeta-Jones started to play them off with an imaginary violin.

"Get outta here!" Gere said with a smile.

Octavia Spencer, who won the supporting actress Oscar last year for her performance in "The Help," also had a little fun.

"I'm going to do a soft-shoe," she said, shuffling off stage.

Streep and Jane Fonda were each wowed by the set design. Fonda snapped a photo of it with her iPhone, and Streep marveled at how far the walk to the microphone was.

"All the way to here?!" she asked. "Oh my God."

Halle Berry literally stumbled during her first rehearsal, her pointy heel catching on part of the stage. She insisted on trying again.

"Woo hoo," she said. "Made it."

___

AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen is on Twitter: www.twitter.com/APSandy .

___

Online:

www.oscars.org

Jane Fonda even took a picture of the stage with her iPhone.

The Academy Awards will be presented Sunday and broadcast live on ABC.

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The Texas Tribune: Advocates Seek Mental Health Changes, Including Power to Detain

Matt Rainwaters for Texas Monthly

The Sherman grave of Andre Thomas’s victims.

SHERMAN — A worried call from his daughter’s boyfriend sent Paul Boren rushing to her apartment on the morning of March 27, 2004. He drove the eight blocks to her apartment, peering into his neighbors’ yards, searching for Andre Thomas, Laura Boren’s estranged husband.

Expanded coverage of Texas is produced by The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit news organization. To join the conversation about this article, go to texastribune.org.

For more articles on mental health and criminal justice in Texas, as well as a timeline of the Andre Thomas case: texastribune.org

Matt Rainwaters for Texas Monthly

Laura Boren

He drove past the brightly colored slides, swings and bouncy plastic animals in Fairview Park across the street from the apartment where Ms. Boren, 20, and her two children lived. He pulled into a parking spot below and immediately saw that her door was broken. As his heart raced, Mr. Boren, a white-haired giant of a man, bounded up the stairwell, calling out for his daughter.

He found her on the white carpet, smeared with blood, a gaping hole in her chest. Beside her left leg, a one-dollar bill was folded lengthwise, the radiating eye of the pyramid facing up. Mr. Boren knew she was gone.

In a panic, he rushed past the stuffed animals, dolls and plastic toys strewn along the hallway to the bedroom shared by his two grandchildren. The body of 13-month-old Leyha Hughes lay on the floor next to a blood-spattered doll nearly as big as she was.

Andre Boren, 4, lay on his back in his white children’s bed just above Leyha. He looked as if he could have been sleeping — a moment away from revealing the toothy grin that typically spread from one of his round cheeks to the other — except for the massive chest wound that matched the ones his father, Andre Thomas (the boy was also known as Andre Jr.), had inflicted on his mother and his half-sister as he tried to remove their hearts.

“You just can’t believe that it’s real,” said Sherry Boren, Laura Boren’s mother. “You’re hoping that it’s not, that it’s a dream or something, that you’re going to wake up at any minute.”

Mr. Thomas, who confessed to the murders of his wife, their son and her daughter by another man, was convicted in 2005 and sentenced to death at age 21. While awaiting trial in 2004, he gouged out one of his eyes, and in 2008 on death row, he removed the other and ate it.

At least twice in the three weeks before the crime, Mr. Thomas had sought mental health treatment, babbling illogically and threatening to commit suicide. On two occasions, staff members at the medical facilities were so worried that his psychosis made him a threat to himself or others that they sought emergency detention warrants for him.

Despite talk of suicide and bizarre biblical delusions, he was not detained for treatment. Mr. Thomas later told the police that he was convinced that Ms. Boren was the wicked Jezebel from the Bible, that his own son was the Antichrist and that Leyha was involved in an evil conspiracy with them.

He was on a mission from God, he said, to free their hearts of demons.

Hospitals do not have legal authority to detain people who voluntarily enter their facilities in search of mental health care but then decide to leave. It is one of many holes in the state’s nearly 30-year-old mental health code that advocates, police officers and judges say lawmakers need to fix. In a report last year, Texas Appleseed, a nonprofit advocacy organization, called on lawmakers to replace the existing code with one that reflects contemporary mental health needs.

“It was last fully revised in 1985, and clearly the mental health system has changed drastically since then,” said Susan Stone, a lawyer and psychiatrist who led the two-year Texas Appleseed project to study and recommend reforms to the code. Lawmakers have said that although the code may need to be revamped, it will not happen in this year’s legislative session. Such an undertaking requires legislative studies that have not been conducted. But advocates are urging legislators to make a few critical changes that they say could prevent tragedies, including giving hospitals the right to detain someone who is having a mental health crisis.

From the time Mr. Thomas was 10, he had told friends he heard demons in his head instructing him to do bad things. The cacophony drove him to attempt suicide repeatedly as an adolescent, according to court records. He drank and abused drugs to try to quiet the noise.

bgrissom@texastribune.org

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Jason Bateman gives Ernest Borgnine's estate a new identity

Markus Canter and Cristie St. James, who share the title luxury properties director at Prudential in Beverly Hills, like Jason Bateman's real estate sense. The actor got privacy, potential and a knoll location for $3 million.

Actor Jason Bateman and his wife, actress Amanda Anka, are dropping anchor in the Beverly Crest area with the purchase of the estate of Ernest Borgnine for $3 million.

The gated country English compound sits on a half-acre knoll. The 6,148-square-foot home features a formal entry hall, a grand staircase, a paneled library, an office, a den, six bedrooms and seven bathrooms. There is a guesthouse and a swimming pool.

Bateman, 44, stars in the comic film "Identity Thief," released this month. He is known to generations of TV viewers for his roles in "Arrested Development" (2003-present) and "Valerie," later retitled "The Hogan Family" (1986-91). Anka, 44, has appeared in "Bones" (2008), "Notes From the Underbelly" (2007) and "Beverly Hills, 90210" (1996).

Borgnine, who died last year at 95, is remembered for his Oscar-winning performance in "Marty" (1955) and his work in the title role as commander of a madcap crew in the sitcom "McHale's Navy" (1962-65). Until 2011 he was the voice of Mermaidman on "SpongeBob SquarePants."

The estate came on the market in October for the first time in 60 years priced at $3.395 million.

Billy Rose, Paul Lester and Aileen Comora of the Agency in Beverly Hills were the listing agents. Richard Ehrlich of Westside Estate Agency represented the buyers.

Where pair spent days of their lives

Soap star Peter Reckell and his wife, singer Kelly Moneymaker, have sold their custom-built, eco-friendly home in Brentwood for $3.35 million.

Before building the 3,345-square-foot house, the couple had the existing home on the site torn down, crated and shipped to Mexico for reuse by Habitat for Humanity. Then they designed and built a three-bedroom, four-bathroom contemporary that uses solar power.

Green elements include a photovoltaic system with battery backup, skylights, recycled glass terrazzo floors with radiant heating, recycled denim and organic cotton insulation, bamboo cabinets and doors, a roof garden and a water reclamation system.

A temperature-controlled wine cave and a recording studio are among other features.

Along with an indoor/outdoor koi pond, a meditation fountain and a solar infinity pool, outdoor amenities include a 16th century East Indian temple that was turned into a pavilion.

"This is my sanctuary," Reckell said. It frames views of the Santa Monica Mountains Conservancy.

Reckell, 57, played Bo Brady on "Days of Our Lives" from 1983 through last year. The show began in 1965. He also appeared in "Knots Landing" (1988-89). He is an avid environmentalist and bikes to work.

Moneymaker, 42, is a former member of the music group Exposé. She was inspired to build an environmentally friendly home because the carpet and other elements in the old house bothered her allergies and affected her voice.

Public records show they bought the property in 2003 for $1.14 million.

Daniel Banchik of Prudential's West Hollywood office was the listing agent. Scott Segall of John Aaroe Group represented the buyer.

Another rock owner for home

Hard Rock Cafe co-founder Peter Morton has made his mark on L.A.'s real estate scene of late, buying the old Elvis Presley estate in Beverly Hills at year-end for $9.8 million.

But flying under the radar was his bigger off-market purchase midyear for a property in Bel-Air at $25 million, public records show. Area real estate agents not involved in the transaction say Morton plans to take down the existing home and build another on the site. The estate had belonged to Joseph Farrell, who founded National Research Group Inc. in 1978 and brought market testing to Hollywood. Farrell died in December 2011.

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Athletes cash in on California's workers' comp

SACRAMENTO — In his seven-year career with the Denver Broncos, running back Terrell Davis, a former Super Bowl Most Valuable Player, dazzled fans with his speed and elusiveness.

At the end of his rookie year in 1995, he signed a $6.8-million, five-year contract. Off the field he endorsed Campbell's soup. And when he hung up his cleats, he reported for the National Football League Network and appeared in movies and TV shows.

So it may surprise Californians to find out that in 2011, Davis got a $199,000 injury settlement from a California workers' compensation court for injuries related to football. This came despite the fact Davis was employed by a Colorado team and played just nine times in California during an 88-game career, according to the NFL.

Davis was compensated for the lifelong effects of multiple injuries to the head, arms, trunk, legs and general body, according to California workers' compensation records.

He is not alone.

Over the last three decades, California's workers' compensation system has awarded millions of dollars in benefits for job-related injuries to thousands of professional athletes. The vast majority worked for out-of-state teams; some played as little as one game in the Golden State.

All states allow professional athletes to claim workers' compensation payments for specific job-related injuries — such as a busted knee, torn tendon or ruptured spinal disc — that happened within their borders. But California is one of the few that provides additional payments for the cumulative effect of injuries that occur over years of playing.

A growing roster of athletes are using this provision in California law to claim benefits. Since the early 1980s, an estimated $747 million has been paid out to about 4,500 players, according to an August study commissioned by major professional sports leagues. California taxpayers are not on the hook for these payments. Workers' compensation is an employer-funded program.

Now a major battle is brewing in Sacramento to make out-of-state players ineligible for these benefits, which are paid by the leagues and their insurers. They have hired consultants and lobbyists and expect to unveil legislation next week that would halt the practice.

"The system is completely out of whack right now," said Jeff Gewirtz, vice president of the Brooklyn Nets — formerly the New Jersey Nets — of the National Basketball Assn.

Major retired stars who scored six-figure California workers' compensation benefits include Moses Malone, a three-time NBA most valuable player with the Houston Rockets, Philadelphia 76ers and other teams. He was awarded $155,000. Pro Football Hall of Fame wide receiver Michael Irvin, formerly with the Dallas Cowboys, received $249,000. The benefits usually are calculated as lump-sum payments but sometimes are accompanied by open-ended agreements to provide lifetime medical services.

Players, their lawyers and their unions plan to mount a political offensive to protect these payouts.

Although the monster salaries of players such as Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant and Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning make headlines, few players bring in that kind of money. Most have very short careers. And some, particularly football players, end up with costly, debilitating injuries that haunt them for a lifetime but aren't sufficiently covered by league disability benefits.

Retired pros increasingly are turning to California, not only because of its cumulative benefits but also because there's a longer window to file a claim. The statute of limitations in some states expires in as little as a year or two.

"California is a last resort for a lot of these guys because they've already been cut off in the other states," said Mel Owens, a former Los Angeles Rams linebacker-turned-workers' compensation lawyer who has represented a number of ex-players.

To understand how it works, consider the career of Ernie Conwell. A former tight end for the St. Louis Rams and New Orleans Saints, he was paid $1.6 million for his last season in 2006.

Conwell said that during his 11-year career, he underwent about 18 surgeries, including 11 knee operations. Now 40, he works for the NFL players union and lives in Nashville.

Hobbled by injuries, he filed for workers' compensation in Louisiana and got $181,000 in benefits to cover his last, career-ending knee surgery in 2006, according to the Saints. The team said it also provided $195,000 in injury-related benefits as part of a collective-bargaining agreement with the players union.

But such workers' compensation benefits paid by Louisiana cover only specific injuries. So, to deal with what he expects to be the costs of ongoing health problems that he said affect his arms, legs, muscles, bones and head, Conwell filed for compensation in California and won.

Even though he played only about 20 times in the state over his professional career, he received a $160,000 award from a California workers' compensation judge plus future medical benefits, according to his lawyer. The Saints are appealing the judgment.

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Adele, 'Les Miserables' cast sing on Oscar stage

LOS ANGELES (AP) — It was an extra starry, musical day at the Dolby Theatre.

Adele took the stage first Friday, followed by the cast of "Les Miserables," singing together of the first time.

Oscar nominees Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway, along with co-stars Russell Crowe, Amanda Seyfried, Helena Bonham-Carter, Sasha Baron-Cohen, Eddie Redmayne, Aaron Tveit and Samantha Barks rehearsed their performances on the Oscar stage. They were backed by members of the musical's stage productions from London and Broadway.

"Les Miserables" director Tom Hooper sat in the front row of the theater as his cast sang.

Moments earlier, Adele dazzled the tiny audience of show workers with her performance of the James Bond theme "Skyfall."

"I need a lot more reverb on me," she said after her first run. "You might need to get a new reverb machine."

The 24-year-old multiple Grammy winner arrived wearing a black tunic, black leggings and flats, with no makeup and her hair in a ponytail.

"I'm going to have very high heels on the night, guys," she announced from the microphone, sipping tea between verses.

"Do you need the dresses?" she asked, and a team of stylists brought out the gowns Adele is considering for her Oscar performance.

The dress producers favored? "It's very heavy — I mean I struggle to stand in it," Adele said. "Come and feel how heavy it is, so you don't think I'm a wimp!"

She performed her Oscar-nominated song five times before leaving the theater. "It's been good, yeah?" she asked producer Neil Meron, who nodded in approval.

Just after Adele wrapped, the star-studded "Les Miserables" cast took the stage. Hathaway chatted with Bonham-Carter as Jackman sang a capella. Then Hathaway checked her microphone with a quick verse.

"Ooh, that was flat," she said.

The entire cast assembled for a final run-through when Jackman spontaneously began singing "My Bonny Lies over the Ocean."

"My bonny lies over my daddy," the ensemble responded, breaking into laughter.

Other stars rehearsing Friday included Jennifer Hudson, who is set to perform a song from "Dreamgirls" at Sunday's ceremony.

___

AP Entertainment Writer Sandy Cohen is on Twitter: www.twitter.com/APSandy .

___

Online:

www.oscar.com

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Drone Pilots Found to Get Stress Disorders Much as Those in Combat Do

U.S. Air Force/Master Sgt. Steve Horton

Capt. Richard Koll, left, and Airman First Class Mike Eulo monitored a drone aircraft after launching it in Iraq.

The study affirms a growing body of research finding health hazards even for those piloting machines from bases far from actual combat zones.

“Though it might be thousands of miles from the battlefield, this work still involves tough stressors and has tough consequences for those crews,” said Peter W. Singer, a scholar at the Brookings Institution who has written extensively about drones. He was not involved in the new research.

That study, by the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, which analyzes health trends among military personnel, did not try to explain the sources of mental health problems among drone pilots.

But Air Force officials and independent experts have suggested several potential causes, among them witnessing combat violence on live video feeds, working in isolation or under inflexible shift hours, juggling the simultaneous demands of home life with combat operations and dealing with intense stress because of crew shortages.

“Remotely piloted aircraft pilots may stare at the same piece of ground for days,” said Jean Lin Otto, an epidemiologist who was a co-author of the study. “They witness the carnage. Manned aircraft pilots don’t do that. They get out of there as soon as possible.”

Dr. Otto said she had begun the study expecting that drone pilots would actually have a higher rate of mental health problems because of the unique pressures of their job.

Since 2008, the number of pilots of remotely piloted aircraft — the Air Force’s preferred term for drones — has grown fourfold, to nearly 1,300. The Air Force is now training more pilots for its drones than for its fighter jets and bombers combined. And by 2015, it expects to have more drone pilots than bomber pilots, although fighter pilots will remain a larger group.

Those figures do not include drones operated by the C.I.A. in counterterrorism operations over Pakistan, Yemen and other countries.

The Pentagon has begun taking steps to keep pace with the rapid expansion of drone operations. It recently created a new medal to honor troops involved in both drone warfare and cyberwarfare. And the Air Force has expanded access to chaplains and therapists for drone operators, said Col. William M. Tart, who commanded remotely piloted aircraft crews at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada.

The Air Force has also conducted research into the health issues of drone crew members. In a 2011 survey of nearly 840 drone operators, it found that 46 percent of Reaper and Predator pilots, and 48 percent of Global Hawk sensor operators, reported “high operational stress.” Those crews cited long hours and frequent shift changes as major causes.

That study found the stress among drone operators to be much higher than that reported by Air Force members in logistics or support jobs. But it did not compare the stress levels of the drone operators with those of traditional pilots.

The new study looked at the electronic health records of 709 drone pilots and 5,256 manned aircraft pilots between October 2003 and December 2011. Those records included information about clinical diagnoses by medical professionals and not just self-reported symptoms.

After analyzing diagnosis and treatment records, the researchers initially found that the drone pilots had higher incidence rates for 12 conditions, including anxiety disorder, depressive disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, substance abuse and suicidal ideation.

But after the data were adjusted for age, number of deployments, time in service and history of previous mental health problems, the rates were similar, said Dr. Otto, who was scheduled to present her findings in Arizona on Saturday at a conference of the American College of Preventive Medicine.

The study also found that the incidence rates of mental heath problems among drone pilots spiked in 2009. Dr. Otto speculated that the increase might have been the result of intense pressure on pilots during the Iraq surge in the preceding years.

The study found that pilots of both manned and unmanned aircraft had lower rates of mental health problems than other Air Force personnel. But Dr. Otto conceded that her study might underestimate problems among both manned and unmanned aircraft pilots, who may feel pressure not to report mental health symptoms to doctors out of fears that they will be grounded.

She said she planned to conduct two follow-up studies: one that tries to compensate for possible underreporting of mental health problems by pilots and another that analyzes mental health issues among sensor operators, who control drone cameras while sitting next to the pilots.

“The increasing use of remotely piloted aircraft for war fighting as well as humanitarian relief should prompt increased surveillance,” she said.

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Southern California malls target Asian shoppers

The arrival of the Lunar New Year this month seems to have sparked an epiphany for area shopping centers: Asian and Asian American consumers have a growing pile of money and want to spend it where they're welcome.

So in the Year of the Snake, malls around the Southland are hustling harder to make themselves more appealing to the demographic.

Desert Hills Premium Outlets, Ontario Mills and the Outlets at Orange are partnering on a "Snaking through Southern California" initiative to lure Chinese shoppers to their malls. Simon Property Group, which owns the centers, says it's attempting to market to Asian consumers with multilingual messaging and Lunar New Year decorations.

Many stores in South Coast Plaza now have Asian employees to cater to the influx of moneyed tourists from China, Japan and South Korea who flock to the upscale mall. The center also has a language-assistance program and maps in Asian languages.

Westfield Santa Anita in Arcadia, a city where more than half the population is Asian/Asian American, is hosting its first-ever Lunar New Year festival Saturday afternoon. Free activities include a lion dance, Chinese calligraphy demonstrations and a Year of the Snake photo booth for families.

The San Gabriel Valley center hung a 120-foot, 600-pound red-and-gold dragon installation above its indoor carousel. Decorators brought in a Chinese pagoda as well as kumquat trees for good luck.

Even after the holiday, Westfield plans to continue tweaking the Santa Anita mall -- currently home to Nordstrom, AMC Theatres, Macy’s and more -- to better suit its Asian American clientele.

This summer, Hai Di Lao, a hot-pot restaurant chain based in China's Sichuan province, is to open its first U.S. location at the center. Beijing-based eatery Meizhou Dongpo is also scheduled to move in, in early 2014.

The mall already offers some store directories in Chinese.

The revamps could have a major economic payoff. Government projections peg 2013 as a record year for Chinese tourism to the United States. A report from Nielsen this past fall showed Asian American buying power surging over $1 trillion within five years, from $718.4 billion in 2012.

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Gunfire and deadly crash rattle the Las Vegas Strip

LAS VEGAS — A spectacular predawn crash on the Strip — triggered when bullets fired from a black Range Rover peppered a Maserati — hit this resort city right between the eyes. In the end, three people were dead and a major intersection under lockdown during a three-state manhunt for the shooters, leaving even casino veterans used to the extraordinary scratching their heads.

The mayhem was sparked, witnesses told police, by a quarrel early Thursday at a hotel valet stand.

The two vehicles left the Aria resort hotel and were heading north on Las Vegas Boulevard at 4:20 a.m., an hour when the casino marquees shine brightly but the gambling thoroughfare is largely empty. At Harmon Avenue, occupants inside the Range Rover opened fire on the Maserati, police said.

The silver-gray sports car, which was struck several times, sped into the intersection at Flamingo Road, ramming a Yellow cab. The taxi exploded, killing the driver and a passenger. Four other vehicles in the intersection were also involved in the crash and explosion, but officers offered no details.

"Omg Omg Omg that car just blew up!" one witness tweeted shortly after the crash, posting a photo of the wreckage. "God Bless their Souls! Omg!"

The driver of the Maserati died later at a hospital, police said. A passenger in the vehicle received minor injuries and was being interviewed by investigators. At least three others were also injured.

Police in Nevada, California, Arizona and Utah were on alert for the distinctive black Range Rover SUV, described as having dark-tinted windows, black rims and out-of-state paper dealer plates.

"We are going to pursue these individuals and prosecute them," Clark County Sheriff Doug Gillespie said at an afternoon news conference. "This act was totally unacceptable. It's not just tragic but unnecessary — the level of violence we see here in Las Vegas and across America."

Authorities had not publicly identified the dead. But a Las Vegas television station late Thursday identified the taxi driver as Michael Boldon, 62, who the station said had recently moved here from Michigan to care for his 93-year-old mother.

The victim's son, who drives a limousine, told Fox News 5 that he last talked with his father after 3 a.m., and later called his cellphone shortly after the crash to warn him to avoid the Strip. But there was no answer.

The station also identified the driver of the Maserati as Ken Cherry, a rap artist from Oakland who also is known as "Kenny Clutch." The station quoted family members identifying Cherry as the driver. An Internet video of a Cherry song called "Stay Schemin" shows two men in a vehicle on the Strip.

Police had more questions than answers.

"It began with a dispute at a nearby hotel and spilled onto the streets," said Capt. Chris Jones of the Las Vegas Police Robbery and Homicide Division.

The morning's events threw the Strip into disarray all day. The gambling boulevard's busiest and best-known intersection was cordoned off by yellow police tape until nightfall, keeping traffic and curious pedestrians away from the carnage. Even skywalks were blocked off.

While slot machines beeped and card games continued inside casinos around the accident scene — including the Bellagio, Caesars Palace and Paris Las Vegas — hotel bell captains were fielding questions from tourists who had awakened to news of the crash and the Strip shutdown. The alleys and side streets between nearby hotels were clogged with pedestrians who inched along on narrow sidewalks, past delivery doors, many making their own paths between the landscaped bushes and palm trees.

Even casino industry workers were thrown into turmoil. Hotel maids and dealers who finished their midnight shifts after dawn were left without bus service home. "I'm stranded," said Tiruselam Kefyalew, 25, a maid. "What a day to leave my cellphone at home."

Limousine drivers who normally prowl the city's gambling core improvised detours. Some said the police blockade would cost them $500 or more in lost business and tips.

"Most people understand, but you have your complainers," said Jim DeSanto, a limo driver who waited for fares outside Bally's casino. "Those people will complain, even when everything is perfect."

Well after noon, guests peered out nearby hotel windows and others leaned into the street to glimpse the crime scene.

"Hey, honey, it must have happened right here," one man told his wife as they left Caesars around noon. The tourist, who would only say that he had arrived from Tampa, Fla., the previous evening, had looked out his hotel window at 4:30 to see a vehicle in flames.

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